Diminishing Depths: Pakistan Navy’s Submarine Fleet Faces Operational Crisis Amid Maintenance Backlogs
Recent satellite imagery from Karachi Naval Dockyard, dated March 2025, paints a concerning picture of the Pakistan Navy’s (PN) underwater warfare capabilities. Of the five operational submarines believed to be in the PN fleet, two are currently berthed at the docks undergoing extended maintenance or upgrade cycles, and one remains on land — visibly out of water — indicating prolonged unavailability. This leaves only two submarines potentially available for deployment, raising serious questions about the operational readiness and strategic depth of Pakistan’s submarine force.
Maintenance Bottlenecks and Strategic Implications
The visual evidence from March, corroborated by current imagery, shows no significant change in the status of the docked and grounded vessels, implying that the maintenance timelines have stretched beyond acceptable standards. Given the complexity of submarine systems and the high-cost nature of overhauls, especially with aging French-origin Agosta-class vessels, the PN is likely grappling with both technical and financial bottlenecks.
Pakistan Navy’s submarine fleet has historically been a central component of its deterrence strategy, especially in counterbalance to the Indian Navy’s growing underwater capabilities, which include nuclear-powered and indigenously-built submarines. With only two submarines potentially combat-ready, the PN’s second-strike and surveillance capability is at a historic low.
Impact on Regional Naval Balance
This degradation in Pakistan’s sub-surface strength comes at a critical time when regional waters — particularly the Arabian Sea — have become a theater of intensified naval activity involving India, China, the US, and other regional navies. India’s consistent maritime surveillance, expansion of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, and strategic infrastructure in Lakshadweep and the western seaboard further tilt the maritime balance.
Budgetary Constraints and Delayed Replacements
Pakistan’s economic stress has directly impacted military modernization, especially the Navy which often finds itself last in line after the Army and Air Force. While new submarines under the Hangor-class deal with China are on the horizon, delays in deliveries and integration with PN’s operational doctrines mean the current capability gap will persist for the near future.
In conclusion, the Pakistan Navy’s diminished sub-surface presence is more than a tactical gap — it reflects a broader strategic vulnerability. Until modernization efforts are realized, and maintenance cycles optimized, the PN remains critically underpowered beneath the waves.
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