Indian Air Force Confident of Retaining ‘First Shot’ Advantage Against PAF Amidst Advancements in Air-to-Air Missile Capabilities

New Delhi – The Indian Air Force (IAF) is confident of maintaining its “First Shot” advantage against the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), an edge it successfully regained in 2022. This advantage, crucial in modern aerial warfare, ensures that IAF fighters can fire their missiles before their adversaries, significantly improving their chances of victory in an engagement. The renewed edge was achieved with the induction of the advanced MBDA Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM), which significantly outperforms the Chinese PL-15, a key weapon in PAF’s arsenal.

Now, with the Indian Navy (IN) also placing an order for Rafale Marine fighter jets, this technological superiority will extend to the naval domain, strengthening India’s aerial combat capability even further.

How IAF Regained the ‘First Shot’ Advantage

Between 2011 and 2022, the PAF held a decisive advantage in beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat due to its use of the AIM-120C5 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile), which significantly outperformed the Russian R-77 missiles used by the IAF. During this period, the PAF’s ability to engage IAF aircraft at longer ranges provided it with a critical edge in aerial engagements.

However, this equation changed in 2022 when the IAF integrated the Meteor missile with its Rafale fleet. The Meteor, with its superior range, high kill probability, and advanced guidance system, surpassed the capabilities of both the AIM-120C5 and the Chinese-manufactured PL-15, which PAF employs on its JF-17 Block III and J-10C fighters. Analysts believe the PL-15, despite its long-range claims, does not match the reliability and effectiveness of the Meteor, reinforcing India’s air superiority in BVR combat.

Indian Navy to Gain First Shot Advantage with Rafale-M

The Indian Navy’s decision to procure Rafale-M fighters for its aircraft carriers will further extend this advantage to the maritime domain. These naval fighters, like their IAF counterparts, will be armed with Meteor missiles, ensuring that the Indian Navy maintains an edge over potential adversaries in aerial engagements over the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

With China expanding its presence in the IOR and Pakistan upgrading its naval aviation capabilities, the induction of the Rafale-M with Meteor missiles will be a game-changer. The combination of advanced radar, superior sensors, and Meteor’s unmatched performance will provide Indian forces with a crucial “first shot, first kill” capability, reducing the risks in high-stakes combat scenarios.

Future Developments: Astra Mk2 and AIM-120D-3

The IAF is not stopping at the Meteor. India’s indigenous Astra Mk2, a next-generation BVRAAM, is expected to further enhance the first-shot capability of the IAF in the coming years. The Astra Mk2, currently under development, is designed to rival the AIM-120 series in range and lethality. It will be integrated across a wide range of Indian fighter jets, including the Su-30MKI, Tejas Mk1A, and future AMCA platforms.

Additionally, India’s acquisition of the F-35 Lightning II in the future could introduce the AIM-120D-3, the latest variant of the AMRAAM, into the Indian arsenal. This missile, with a significantly improved range and electronic warfare capabilities, would further reinforce India’s air dominance.

Strategic Implications

The restoration of the “First Shot” advantage is a crucial development in South Asia’s aerial combat balance. Given the lessons learned from past skirmishes, including the 2019 Balakot air battle, the ability to strike first in BVR engagements is a decisive factor. With the Meteor in service and Astra Mk2 on the way, the IAF is ensuring that its air dominance is maintained in any future conflict scenario.

As the Indian military continues to modernize its fighter fleet and missile capabilities, its ability to deter adversaries and maintain air superiority remains stronger than ever. The ongoing advancements will not only shape future engagements with Pakistan but also reinforce India’s preparedness against regional threats in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.